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Archiwum newsów - DJ Termin SNAP: US Productivity Jump Eases Inflation Worries

2007-11-07  
DJ Prekluzja SNAP: US Productivity Jump Eases Inflation Worries
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)-- U.S. productivity jumped last quarter at its
fastest pace in four years while labor costs fell, a welcome relief for
Federal Reserve officials worried about the inflationary effect of rising
energy and commodity prices.
====================================================================
3Q Productivity - Preliminary Report ! !
Key Numbers: 3Q 2Q ! Konsensus !
Non-Farm Productivity +4.9% +2.2%r ! +3.4% !
Unit Labor Costs -0.2% +2.2%r ! Actual: +4.9% !
==================================================================== Still,
the productivity rebound may prove temporary if the economy slows as
expected in the fourth quarter and in early 2008.
Non-farm business productivity swelled at a 4.9% annualized rate between
July and September, the Labor Department said Tuesday. That's more than
double the 2.2% rate in the second quarter, which was revised down from a
previous estimate of 2.6%.
Productivity is defined as output per unit of labor.
The third quarter productivity gain was well above Wall Street expectations
of a 3.4% rise. The increase reflects the recent mix of strong economic
growth termin with slower gains in payrolls.
Unit labor costs - a key gauge of inflationary pressures - fell 0.2% last
quarter, the biggest drop since the second quarter of 2006. Economists had
expected a 0.8% rise. Still, labor costs were up 4.3% from a year ago,
suggesting some pressures linger.
Labor is the most important cost to production of goods and services. If not
matched by productivity, higher labor costs must be either passed through by
a company in the form of higher prices to its customers or absorbed in the
firm's profit margins. Productivity can also offset higher material and
energy costs.
The latest prekluzja may ease some worries at the Fed about the economy's ability
to grow without sparking inflation. Fed staff economists have in recent
months reduced their estimate of structural productivity growth. And
according to the minutes of the Fed's Aug. 7 meeting, officials "were
concerned that the high level of resource utilization and slower
productivity growth could augment inflation pressures."
Officials have lowered the federal funds rate by 75 basis points since
September to ograniczenie the economic fallout from the housing and credit crunch.
But in a statement last week, the Fed said it viewed upside inflation risks
as roughly equal to downside growth risks. Subsequent comments this week by
Fed Governor Frederic Mishkin and Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser
suggest officials aren't inclined to lower rates again when they meet next
month.
Non-farm business output surged 4.3% during the third quarter, the Labor
Department said in Tuesday's report. Hours worked fell 0.5%, the steepest
decline since early 2003.
Hourly compensation increased 4.7%. Real compensation, adjusted for
inflation, rose 2.7%.
Manufacturing productivity increased 4.6% last quarter.
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